Free betting calculator
Implied probability calculator
Enter odds in any format to see the win chance they imply and the same price in every format, or enter a probability to see its fair odds.
From odds to probability
| Format | Price |
|---|---|
| American | -150 |
| Decimal | 1.667 |
| Fractional | 2/3 |
| Hong Kong | 0.67 |
| Indonesian | -1.50 |
| Malay | +0.67 |
The implied probability is also the break even win rate: a bet at this price has to win that often just to come out even over time. A sportsbook's price includes its margin, so the implied chances of every outcome add up to more than 100%. Use the no vig calculator to remove it.
Show the calculation
- Minus American odds: probability = |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100) = 150 ÷ 250 = 60.00%
- This is the sportsbook's price, so it includes the margin: the chances of every outcome in the market add up to more than 100%.
Calculations show hypothetical outcomes from the prices you enter. They do not predict results, and betting always involves risk.
What implied probability means
Every price says how likely an outcome is, according to the sportsbook, margin included. Implied probability is that likelihood as a percentage, and it doubles as the break even rate: bet at -150 and you need to win 60% of the time just to come out even.
Prices and their implied chances
| American | Decimal | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| -400 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| -250 | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| -150 | 1.667 | 60.0% |
| -110 | 1.909 | 52.4% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| +130 | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| +400 | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| +900 | 10.00 | 10.0% |
The formula
- Decimal odds: probability = 1 / decimal odds. 2.50 is 1 / 2.50 = 40%.
- Minus American odds: probability = |odds| / (|odds| + 100). -150 is 150 / 250 = 60%.
- Plus American odds: probability = 100 / (odds + 100). +200 is 100 / 300 = 33.33%.
- Fractional odds a/b: probability = b / (a + b). 5/2 is 2 / 7 = 28.57%.
These are the sportsbook's numbers, margin included. Add the implied chances of every outcome in a market and you get more than 100%; the excess is the margin, which the no vig calculator removes to estimate fair chances. Neither is a forecast of the result.
From probability back to odds
Switch to "A probability" to see the fair odds for a chance you estimate yourself: 25% is +300, or 4.00 in decimal. Your estimate is an assumption, not a forecast, so treat the result as the price you would need, not the price you will get.
Related guides
Common questions
How do you calculate implied probability from American odds?
For minus odds: |odds| / (|odds| + 100). For plus odds: 100 / (odds + 100). So -150 is 150 / 250 = 60% and +150 is 100 / 250 = 40%.
How do you calculate it from decimal odds?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds. 2.50 implies 1 / 2.50 = 40%.
Why do the implied probabilities of both sides add up to more than 100%?
Because each price includes the sportsbook's margin. A -150 / +130 moneyline implies 60.0% and 43.5%, 103.5% in total. The extra 3.5% is the overround.
What is a break even win rate?
The share of bets at a price you need to win to neither gain nor lose over time. It is the same number as the implied probability.
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