Free betting calculator
Expected value (EV) calculator
Enter the odds, your own estimate of the win chance and a stake to see the expected profit, your edge over the price and the win rate you need to break even.
Your bet and your estimate
If your 45% is right, this price is longer than fair (+122) and the bet makes money on average over many bets like it. Any single bet still wins or loses in full.
Your win chance is an assumption, not a forecast. Expected value is only as good as that estimate.
Calculations show hypothetical outcomes from the prices you enter. They do not predict results, and betting always involves risk.
Two examples
- $100 at +150 with a 45% win estimate: EV +$12.50, edge 12.5%. The break even rate is 40.0%, so 45% clears it.
- $100 at -110 with a 50% estimate: EV -$4.55, edge -4.55%. A coin flip at -110 loses money on average; that gap is the vig.
Getting a sensible estimate
The no vig calculator turns a market's prices into fair chances you can use as a starting point. To size a +EV bet, see the Kelly criterion calculator.
Related guides
Common questions
What is expected value in betting?
The average result of a bet if it could be repeated many times at the same price and the same true win chance. Positive EV means the price pays more than the risk you take, if your win chance is right.
How is EV calculated?
EV = (win chance x profit if it wins) minus (lose chance x stake). For $100 at +150 with a 45% chance: 0.45 x $150 minus 0.55 x $100 = $12.50.
Where does the win chance come from?
From you. The calculator can't know the true chance; it shows what follows from your estimate. Many bettors use no vig odds from a sharp market as a starting estimate.
Is a +EV bet a sure win?
No. A positive EV bet still loses often. EV describes the average over many similar bets, and only if the estimate is accurate.
More betting calculators
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