UFC and MMA betting tool
UFC method of victory calculator
Enter the method of victory odds for a UFC or MMA fight to see the fair chance of each KO/TKO, submission and decision outcome, and of the fight going the distance.
Method of victory odds
| Outcome | Implied | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fighter A by KO/TKO | 33.3% | 26.1% | +283 |
| Fighter A by Submission | 16.7% | 13.1% | +665 |
| Fighter A by Decision | 25.0% | 19.6% | +410 |
| Fighter B by KO/TKO | 20.0% | 15.7% | +538 |
| Fighter B by Submission | 8.3% | 6.5% | +1430 |
| Fighter B by Decision | 22.2% | 17.4% | +474 |
| Draw | 2.0% | 1.5% | +6403 |
| Fighter A wins (any method) | 58.8% | -143 | |
| Fighter B wins (any method) | 39.6% | +152 |
Method of victory prices carry a bigger margin than the moneyline, so remove it before comparing. A technical decision or a disqualification may be settled differently from a regular decision; check the sportsbook's rules.
Calculations show hypothetical outcomes from the prices you enter. They do not predict results, and betting always involves risk.
How it works
Enter the six method of victory prices (and the draw, if the sportsbook lists one). The calculator adds up their implied chances to measure the margin, then scales each one so they total exactly 100%. From those fair chances it shows each fighter's overall win chance, the chance the fight goes the distance and the chance it ends inside the distance, each with a fair price.
Rounds and the distance
UFC rounds last five minutes. Most fights are scheduled for three rounds, while title fights and main events are scheduled for five, so the same two fighters can have very different distance prices depending on where they sit on the card.
Compare the fair goes the distance price with the sportsbook's own Yes/No market: if the method prices and the distance market disagree after the margin is removed, one of them is out of line.
Related guides
Common questions
What is a method of victory bet?
A bet on how a fighter wins: by KO/TKO, by submission, or by decision. It pays more than the moneyline because you need the right winner and the right method.
What does goes the distance mean?
That the fight reaches the final bell and is decided by the judges, whoever wins. The calculator adds up both fighters' decision chances (and the draw, if priced) to get it.
Are disqualifications and technical decisions counted?
Sportsbooks settle them by their own rules. A disqualification is often grouped with KO/TKO, and a technical decision with decisions, but check the market's rules.
Why is the margin bigger than on the moneyline?
Markets with more outcomes usually carry more margin. With six or seven outcomes, the implied chances can add up to well over 110%, so comparing raw prices can mislead. The calculator removes it first.
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